← GA Middle East Weekly DTR #10
Water AetherwingTier 1
at GA Middle East Weekly DTR #10
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1288
· median 1288
· range 1197–1379
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1134
Q1 1227
Q3 1368
1508
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.9 |
| Fire Suited | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
